Iran’s uncertain future
American relations with Iran have swung widely between close friendship and outright enmity. Two developments could shape what happens next.
Iran has had an outsized influence in the Middle East since ancient times. The Persian empire figures prominently in several books of the Old Testament, primarily because of King Cyrus’ role in permitting the Jews to return to their homeland and rebuild the Jerusalem temple. Since then several dynasties have ruled Persia, extending their influence throughout the region. Iranian languages are spoken, not only in Iran proper, but in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Even the Ottoman Turks adopted elements of Persian culture, which carried considerable prestige and conferred legitimacy on their rule.
Persia officially became Iran decades ago, but its great influence continues to the present. As I write, we are still coming to grips with a joint Israeli/American attack on the country undertaken for conflicting reasons. Shiite Muslim mullahs have ruled Iran since February 1979 and have sowed instability in the Middle East for nearly half a century. Terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah have been funded by Tehran and are a thorn in the side of successive Israeli governments, as well as to neighbouring Arab countries.
Khamenei is dead
American relations with Iran have swung widely between close friendship and outright enmity. In 1953, the United States and the United Kingdom overthrew the regime of Mohammad Mosaddegh and restored Shah Reza Pahlavi to power after a confrontation with his parliament forced him to flee the country. The Shah pursued an autocratic policy of modernization that alienated many Iranians, who felt the brunt of SAVAK, his notorious secret police.
Because the U.S. had backed the Shah, when he was deposed, the succeeding Islamist regime openly declared its opposition to “the Great Satan” and vowed to obliterate Israel. However, the Mullahs, beginning with Ayatollah Khomeini and culminating in his recently deceased successor Ali Khamenei, have imposed draconian penalties on those Iranians falling afoul of Shariah law.
What now? Khamenei is dead, courtesy of Donald Trump’s America and Netanyahu’s Israel. Hopefully soon we will have more clarity as to the length of this war and its effectiveness in provoking Iranians to install new and better leaders.
Changing realities
Nevertheless, two developments are quickly changing realities on the ground. According to recent accounts, fewer than half of Iranians consider themselves Muslim, having long been disillusioned with a faith professed by a corrupt elite using it for their own purposes. There are also reports of huge numbers of conversions to Christianity, with many Iranians reporting having seen visions of Jesus. An underground church could remake the domestic landscape of the country once it emerges into the open.
Both of these developments seem likely to reshape Iran over the long term, its people compelled to adapt to a world that is upending the old assumptions that have governed them for so many decades.
