End of an era

On January 6, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Leader of the Liberal Party and PM of Canada after nine years in office. He and his party had been declining in popularity for several months due to public discontent fueled by the high cost of living and the housing crisis. Trudeau attempted to mollify these concerns in December through the GST/HST holiday and the proposed “Working Canadians Rebate,” but these were widely perceived as an attempt to revive poor performance in the polls, and some questioned the economic wisdom of such measures after inflation had only recently been brought under control.

Trudeau’s insistence on remaining PM became untenable after his finance minister and deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned from cabinet on December 16. In a publicly-posted letter to Trudeau, Freeland alluded to frequent disagreements with Trudeau in the last months of her time as finance minister, calling out his use of “costly political gimmicks” in a time when significant political and economic resources may be needed, particularly due to the reelection of Donald Trump in the United States. Combined with the increasingly loud calls for resignation from within his own party, this was apparently the last straw for Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister.

Liberal Leadership Race

Trudeau has said he will officially step down once the Liberal Party has found a new leader, to be decided in a vote less than two months away. Candidates must declare themselves by January 23 and the results of the vote will be announced on March 9. Entrance fees for candidates are $350,000, a hefty fee designed to ensure that candidates are serious, and voters must be registered Liberals who are citizens or permanent residents of Canada, a tightening of requirements from past years in which international students and some others were allowed to vote.

The next leader of the Liberal Party will have a difficult job. They will need to distance themselves from the legacy of Trudeau, but addressing the root causes of the public’s dislike for Trudeau will be difficult. Canadians are exhausted and frustrated by a housing crisis and by the cost of living, which cannot be solved by simplistic political maneuvers. In addition, Canadians are unlikely to respond to grand campaign promises from a Liberal leader if that person does not already have Canadians’ trust. Instead, the next Liberal Party leader will need to listen and respond to Canadians. They will also need to be willing to build bridges with premiers. Not only will the next Liberal leader need allies for their own success in federal politics, but such partnerships will be needed to effectively address the large-scale problems that are currently affecting Canada.

In the meantime, parliament has been prorogued until March 24, meaning that it will not reconvene until the new Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister is chosen. The Conservative Party, NDP and Bloc Québécois have all promised a vote of no-confidence once parliament resumes, so it is likely that the next prime minister will quickly face an election in which much of public opinion will be against them. That being the case, they must also be prepared to be defeated in the next election and focus on rebuilding the Liberal Party’s reputation with Canadians.

Southern bully

Whoever might win the next election, one of the major challenges that the next prime minister will face is the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States. Even before his inauguration, Trump threatened 25 percent tariffs and the use of economic force to make Canada the “51st state.” While neither would typically be considered a politically or economically wise action, Trump is backed by a Republican House and a Republican Senate, and his threats should be taken seriously. Trump is being combative and aggressive towards Canada, making it clear he does not respect Trudeau.

The next prime minister will thus need to take a firm stance against tariffs and takeover and present themselves as a formidable opponent, should Trump become economically aggressive. They could perhaps take their cue from Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, who has maintained communication with Trump but has also threatened retaliatory tariffs and made it abundantly clear that Mexico will not be steamrolled. Like Sheinbaum, the next Canadian prime minister will need to identify where Canada has an advantage over the United States and be plainly prepared to capitalize on it.

Polarization and Its Long-Term Dangers

While such an approach may encourage Trump to dial down his threats, it may also lead to increased polarization in Canada and North America. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has a bold and aggressive style, which Trump has expressed appreciation for, but Poilievre has also employed polarizing and populist language on the national level to challenge the incumbent Liberals. He frequently characterizes himself and the Conservatives as a “man and party of the people,” and he uses highly polarizing language in his scathing critiques of Trudeau and potential Liberal leadership candidates, to the point of having been removed from the House of Commons due to unparliamentary language.

Poilievre’s political style is effective because polarizing language encourages negative emotions in people, which are strong motivators to political action. Canadians who are already angry about Trudeau’s leadership see in Poilievre a leader who will advocate for their interests and do away with political maneuverings that benefit only the “elites.” Polarizing language also encourages the frustrations of those who are slowly becoming discontent and draws people into an “us-versus-them” political identity.

It will be difficult for other parties to match these tactics without resorting to polarizing language themselves. And the long-term effects of a political scene characterized by polarization and populism are concerning and may be difficult to recover from. If it becomes normal for Canadian parties to claim that they are the representatives of the people and enemies of the elites, and if aggression and attacks on other parties are the new standard, it may be difficult to return to a more civil political scene. Healthy democratic politics requires disagreement between parties, but polarization makes politics a battle of identities rather than a fruitful if messy attempt to work out policy responses to the many challenges that Canada faces.

The prospect of a more polarized Canada is even more concerning when Trump’s presidency is considered. Given its two-party system, the United States is already more polarized than Canada, and Trump’s 2024 campaign leaned heavily on populist sentiments and polarizing language as he continued to normalize aggressive and uncivil language. His success may encourage political leaders in Canada to use such a style in Canadian elections and in future interactions with the United States. Perhaps Trump would respect a more aggressive Canadian prime minister, and perhaps such a leader could convince Trump to back down from his threats, but it does little long-term good for relations between the two countries to become inflamed and oppositional. In a world of increasing global challenges, we need more cooperation within and between countries rather than competitive attitudes which see every interaction as a zero-sum game.

The Response of People of Faith

The emergence of polarizing tactics in Canada should concern people of faith in particular. Those who believe that each person is made in the image of a Creator God should not welcome any political tactics which promote the hatred or “othering” of people, including those who hold different political beliefs. Whether during the Liberal leadership race or the coming Canadian election, people of faith who want to combat polarization should look behind emotion-driven language and consider the actual policy platforms on which candidates and parties are running. Fear and anger are powerful emotional motivators but poor indicators of wise action, and Christians should be wary of messages which rest heavily on these sentiments. Canadians are tired and upset, and for good reason, but we should look for politicians who develop policy solutions to these problems rather than fan the flames of resentment.

The coming years will bring a host of worldwide, long-term challenges. The leaders who emerge out of the coming Liberal leadership race and the next election will be those who guide Canada into what may be a troubled future, and they will be setting norms and precedents for behaviour on the national and international scale. Both as people of faith and as residents of Canada, Canadian Christians should have an interest in electing politicians and parties who value cooperation and long-term solutions.