Blueberry cheesecake with the conservatives

“Something new and strange has happened in Canada,” the voiceover says gravely, “something we haven’t seen before. An entire generation of youth now say they will never be able to afford a home. This is not normal for Canada.”

It’s Housing Hell: How We Got Here and How We Get Out with host Pierre Poilievre in a video released December 2. It’s a strange combination of Conservative Party attack ad, documentary, and edutainment – but regardless of what you call it, the video won praise for speaking directly to voters and for accurately depicting the anger of young people for whom homeownership is out of reach.

Tapping into that grief and economic unease was a smart choice for the Conservatives, who are currently holding the largest lead in the polls they’ve had since 2015. “Young Canadians,” Nanos Research recently announced, “are deserting the Liberals in two directions: to the NDP if they’re annoyed the Liberals aren’t doing enough on climate change, and to the Conservatives if they’re feeling the strain of affordability.” Nanos also said that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would win and likely have a majority government. I’m not a pollster or a pundit but when I read that, I thought, “CBC News is not taking Poilievre seriously enough.” Then, just as I was mulling that over, my dad said, “Hey, do you want to go with me to a Conservative Party Holiday Social?” and I, of course, said “why not?”

Munch and mingle

The food was tasty: mini-hamburgers, gnocchi in tomato sauce, pasta salad with feta. For dessert there was a sea of individual cheesecakes in little wine glasses topped by fresh blueberry compote. The fruit was grown on the farm hosting the event, less than five kilometres from where I live.

While the small crowd milled about, scooping up cheesecake with tiny silver spoons, local MP Philip Lawrence called his eight-year-old son up to the mic.

“What time is it, James?” MP Lawrence asked, smiling even more widely than he had been all evening.

“Time to get ahead!” James replied, ducking his head bashfully as the crowd roared and clapped its approval. Clearly this was a routine they’d done before.

The Holiday Social was a fundraiser for Lawrence (Northumberland-Peterborough South MP) with a special guest from Saskatchewan (Regina-Qu’Appelle MP), former party leader Andrew Scheer. I’m not a card-carrying member of any political party (neither is my dad), but I respect Lawrence and Scheer and was curious to hear what they had to say.

The speeches were short and focused 100 percent on the economy. Lawrence blamed inflation, interest rates and the housing crisis on the current Prime Minister. Once the Conservatives are in power, he said, they’ll “Axe the Tax” and get government spending under control. General consensus was that these “common sense plans” <cheering> will get Canada “back on track” <cheering>. I’m in agreement with Lawrence on the need to reign in spending and address home affordability. Like many Canadians, our family is finding it harder to pay the bills as grocery prices keep skyrocketing – although not all of that can be blamed on the current federal government. (House prices outpacing household income began in the 80s.) Finding problems is generally easier than solving them.

Both MPs were laser-focused on finances: don’t you want more jobs, better salaries, smaller mortgages, lower taxes, affordable housing, cheaper gas and bigger retirement savings? Of course you do! That was a rhetorical question! “What time is it?” “Time to get ahead!”

The ground campaign Scheer seemed to have a more nuanced definition of Conservative values than Lawrence by going beyond the individual. “The Left is selfish,” he said. “They ask – ‘what can I get from the government?’ and then ignore the terrible consequences of their policies. But Conservatives are selfless. They ask – ‘what can I give back?’ You’re here for someone else – your parents, your kids or your community.” That fits a historic Conservative emphasis on community and on preserving the status quo. (Though I did wonder at which point “giving back” occurs – is that when you’re done “getting ahead”?)

I would have liked to hear more about climate change. Foreign policy. The war on Gaza. Health care. But maybe it just wasn’t that kind of event.

With the empathy he’s showing young Canadians in his Housing Hell video, it looks like Poilievre is on the same track as Scheer. This harkens back to the “compassionate conservatism” of Republicans in the early 2000s, as a National Post article pointed out. “Poilievre’s rhetorical shift from ‘Canada is broken’ to ‘Canadians are hurting’ may appear minuscule,” the Post said, “but it could make all the difference for a leader who will need to appeal to more than just the electorate’s anger if he wants to become Canada’s next prime minister.”

Once the speeches were over, people lined up to talk with Scheer and pose for photos with him. The mood was ebullient, as though victory was already secured and this was just a meeting to rehash the details. Servers whisked away dirty plates and put out coffee. I ducked out for a minute to get some air.

On the coat rack in the entryway, dark peacoats hung between heavy canvas jackets – the kind worn by people who work outside in cold weather. The array seemed to underscore one of Scheer’s points: “We don’t have a lot of allies in the mainstream media,” he had said. “No tenured professors; we don’t have academia. But we have a secret weapon: the ground campaign. We have more real people.”

Are real people plus empathy enough to win an election? Maybe. Especially if Poilievre can offer more on how to fix “housing hell” and less on “how we got here” – to assuage economic anxiety rather than stoke it.