What a Trump win means for Canada
Trade uncertainty, strains on NATO and a bumpy road ahead.
Americans have done it again. They have brought Donald J. Trump back to the White House after a hotly contested election campaign filled with plot twists worthy of an Agatha Christie novel. Who could have foreseen that President Joe Biden would bow out midstream and yield to his vice president, Kamala Harris? Who would have anticipated that Trump would choose a very young and hot-headed Senator J. D. Vance (known earlier in his life as James Bowman and James Hamel) as his running mate? And who would have thought that a majority of professed evangelical Christians would support a serial philanderer with a huge ego?
During his previous term as president, Trump’s principal goal was to ‘Make America Great Again,’ mostly by insulting his opponents, scapegoating immigrants and refugees, and threatening the unity of the NATO alliance. When defeated four years ago, he refused to concede gracefully, inciting an uprising on January 6, 2021.
What are the implications of all this for Canadians? Although our two countries have been good neighbours for nearly two centuries, changes in administrations have sometimes led to tensions. John Diefenbaker and John Kennedy endured a somewhat prickly relationship, as did Pierre Trudeau and Richard Nixon. With Trump governing the United States, it is safe to assume that we are in for a rocky ride for the foreseeable future. The U.S. is highly unlikely to give Canada the benefit of the doubt when and if disputes arise between us.
The two major issues likely to divide us are trade and defence.
Border fees
During Trump’s first term, he forced a renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement, which had been in place since 1994. Unlike his Republican predecessors, mostly notably Ronald Reagan, Trump was far less enthusiastic about free trade and much more protectionist in orientation. He threatened to impose tariffs on imported goods as a means of protecting domestic manufacturing, something that would obviously affect both Canada and Mexico. In 2020 NAFTA was replaced by the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USCMA), which includes provisions more favourable to the U.S. affecting dairy, agriculture, automobiles and intellectual property. USCMA also includes a sunset clause whereby the member nations must agree to renew their participation by 2036.
A second Trump administration may see him reissuing threats to impose tariffs on imported goods to appeal to his support base, whether or not it makes economic sense. Canada may be an inadvertent casualty of such actions, unless our government can persuade him otherwise.
Military budgets
Canada and the U.S. are both members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. In addition, the two countries are bound together in NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, a mutual defence pact dating from 1957. Given the size disparities between the two countries, Canada is a junior partner in both organizations. NATO mandates that member states spend at least two percent of their total gross domestic product on defence. Among NATO members, Poland, Estonia, the US, Latvia, and Greece spend the highest percentages of their GDP on defence. By contrast, Canada spends only 1.4 percent, making us vulnerable to criticism that we are not carrying our weight militarily. With a resurgent Russia at war with Ukraine, and with an irascible president in Washington, Ottawa will likely be compelled to up its defence spending, irrespective of who is in the Prime Minister’s Office next year.
Power without integrity
What is not being discussed at present is that one of the most powerful countries on earth has just elected a convicted felon to its highest office. Trump has never been above using public office to advance his own personal brand. With millions of Americans effectively enabling his dysfunctional behaviour, Trump has made himself virtually immune from criticism despite otherwise credible evidence of wrongdoing, because his supporters will always claim that his enemies are out to get him. It is difficult to have normal relations with such a person, whether on the domestic or foreign front. Canadians should prepare themselves for a bumpy four years ahead, hoping and praying that, after Trump is gone, Americans will return to office, not a perfect president, but someone of basic integrity and honesty who will seek public justice for all, including their neighbours to the north.
Thanks, David, for clarifying things without unnecessary alarmism.
Thanks David:
Your second paragraph puts the President-elect’s personal problems into sharp relief.
By juxtaposing 2024’s election result with January 6 2021 you plumb the depth of the ‘existential’ problem that is the Trump ‘victory’. And from simply listening to what Mr T says, it is not difficult to hear that he is riding through life on the back of a deep spiritual and moral emptiness that requires him to pretend he can transact the deal to overcome by “winning”. But the underlying emptiness has not been assuaged by this electoral victory, just as it wasn’t overcome previously. The delusions associated with his kind of politics multiply and are magnified.
Hans Rookmaaker long ago characterised this late phase of modernity by reminding us of Simon and Garfunkel’s song “Flowers never fall in the rain” with the delusions that “continue to continue to pretend.” And we now have been presented with yet another attempt to make America great again … again. Last time’s great success just couldn’t last the distance and it certainly could not extend to a “gracious concession” when someone else won! Winning is what makes greatness. Now this “victory” is another confirmation of the baby-boomer worldview that life’s meaning is created by human success – otherwise it lacks all purpose … we have half-a-century at least of evidence that this outlook hollows out the meaning of God-given political responsibility and how such winning is washed down the drain … now all the clapping and the claptrap confirm a serious time ahead.
And as this fellow and his entourage negotiate having become trapped in their “great” delusion, it is good to hear your analysis to alert us to wise vigilance for the days ahead.
Thanks David …