‘Sending a message to Ottawa’

“All this narrative is being spun about how the Canadian system is failing us,” says John Hiemstra an emeritus professor of Political Science at The King’s University in Edmonton, Alberta. Recently, he spoke to Christian Courier about the Alberta separatist movement, which he calls “deeply ideological” and “complex.”

In October 19, Albertans will vote in a non-binding referendum featuring 10 questions. Question 10 reads: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Then voters are given two options to choose from, rather than a standard yes-or-no.

In October 19, Albertans will vote in a non-binding referendum featuring 10 questions. Question 10 reads: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Then voters are given two options to choose from, rather than a standard yes-or-no.

October’s vote, regardless of the outcome, won’t immediately trigger separation, but Hiemstra believes that our neighbours to the south will be watching the results.

“If the separatists win, even by one percent, America could take advantage of that and might even move to annex Alberta,” said Hiemstra. If the separatists lose, the current U.S. administration may still actively support Alberta in securing separation.

This possibility is what moves him from thinking “it couldn’t possibly happen” to “it could happen.” He wants all Canadians to be aware of the context and hypotheticals that play into the separatist reality, stating that the movement’s success is “kind of a long shot, but a possible long shot.”

A vocal minority

A poll conducted in June by Innovative Research Group and commissioned by Vote to Stay found that in every region of Alberta, the majority favours remaining part of Canada. The highest level of support for staying was in Edmonton (80 percent) and the lowest was in the north and central regions (66 percent).

According to another poll run in Alberta by Angus Reid in August, support for leaving Canada is at about 33 percent and 41 percent of these voters say “it’s about sending a message to Ottawa.” Hiemstra says it would be a mistake to ignore this minority given the complexity of Alberta’s political climate and the long history of this movement.

Back in 1905, when Alberta and Saskatchewan joined Canada, these provinces weren’t given control of their own natural resources. Ottawa didn’t give the prairie provinces control until 1930. But Alberta’s sense of mistreatment by the federal government didn’t end there.

In 1973, Pierre Trudeau put in place the National Energy Program to shift more control and a larger share of oil revenues to the federal government. “This came, to some degree, at the cost of Alberta and its control of oil and ability to make profit off oil,” explained Hiemstra. It contributed to many Albertans’ general sense that they’ve been dealt with badly.

Rich but feeling poor

Albertans, like everyone else, want a good life. Except, many in the movement believe that the thing undermining their ability to have a good life has a lot more to do with the economy and federal failures than anything else.

“The most common type of people in the separatist fold are people who make $150,000 or more dollars a year who think their economic future is imperilled,” said Hiemstra. “This is a fight within a framework for more economic growth, more control of politics in order to be truly happy.” They are looking for a level of personal freedom that they believe Canada has taken away from them.

But Hiemstra says the separatist vision of an oil-rich Alberta doesn’t match reality. “Increasingly, what we’re facing is that our economic social system is degrading the ecological system so severely that a lot of these things are actually beyond being viable options.”

How to leave a country

Patrick Lennox, a writer for The Walrus, has noticed that there are similarities between Danielle Smith’s political moves leading up to the October 19 referendum and the Free Alberta Strategy written in 2021 by Rob Anderson, Barry Cooper and Derek From. The strategy, a 48-page document, outlined the ways in which the federal government had “failed” and “terrorized” Alberta, and how to best extort and distance itself from the rest of Canada.

Hiemstra agrees with Lennox’s assessment. He says the steps outlined are “very similar to what Smith is doing” and that she has “basically acted on almost every one of these. This is their plan, but it’s a plan to extort and to get Canada to give and change in the ways that they want.”

The similarities Hiemstra specifically highlighted include: building a provincial police force to replace the RCMP, passing the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, prioritizing provincial financial institutions, stopping equalization payments, opting out of federal payments and replacing the Canada Pension Plan.

Although much of the attention rests on the fall referendum and the extremist opinions, there are already changes happening behind the doors of Albertan politics that affect what a unified Canada looks like. For example, the Alberta Sheriffs Police Service is already being considered in some towns as a viable alternative to the RCMP.

It is these sorts of additional variables that make Alberta’s 2026 referendum important to watch, even if the separation referendum seems, at first glance, improbable. With the historical, ideological and international factors taken into context, it becomes clear that with or without the votes to support separation this fall, the Alberta separatist movement may remain an unresolved tension following October 19.