Justice for Ukraine may rely on Canada and Europe

This year marks the 35th anniversary of the demise of the Soviet Union, a tyrannical state that kept its people imprisoned under an ostensibly liberating ideology. After it passed out of existence, many of us had moderately high hopes for the fragments left in its wake. Might Russia finally end its centuries-long efforts at territorial expansion and accept its smaller size? Might its newly independent neighbours succeed in finding their own place within the larger international community, freed at last from Moscow’s imperial grip?

Under President Boris Yeltsin, it seemed possible. The Budapest Memorandum of 1994 persuaded Ukraine to relinquish its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees. But Ukraine was a divided country, with a largely pro-European west, centred in the city of Lviv, and a largely pro-Russian south and east. This division was routinely reflected in presidential and parliamentary elections during the post-Soviet era.

For historical reasons, Russia continued to see the post-Soviet republics, and especially Ukraine, as lying within its sphere of influence. When Ukrainian leaders began to flirt with the European Union and even NATO, the Kremlin felt threatened. Once Vladimir Putin came to power at the end of 1999, he gradually consolidated his position, eliminating potential and real opponents and controlling the press.

In 2014, Putin unilaterally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in the face of global protest. He then encouraged separatist movements in the Donbas region. The more Ukraine looked westward, the more Russia interfered in its Russian-speaking areas.

Putin’s gamble

Next month marks four years since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine began. In undertaking this military operation, Russia has arguably stretched itself dangerously thin. It has been unable to defeat Kyiv outright and is now playing a waiting game. There are no victors in a war of attrition. Who will hold out the longest? Kyiv or Moscow? Who will get exhausted first and throw in the towel?

At present, Putin appears to expect Washington to put pressure on Kyiv to settle for the loss of territory and other concessions to Moscow. One can only speculate why President Trump is so keen on cozying up to Putin, but it is long evident that he has little sympathy for Ukrainian President Zelensky, whom he publicly humiliated in the White House a year ago. If there is a chance of Kyiv settling on less than favourable terms, Putin will keep the conflict going for as long as necessary.

The Soviet Union may be long gone, but in many respects its foul spirit lives on in the current regime in Moscow, with Washington incomprehensibly enabling its expansionist behaviour. Under these conditions, Europe and Canada have an unprecedented opportunity to work for a just solution in a troubled part of the world, even if it means going it alone for the moment.