Unintended consequences

At the end of May, temperatures in Delhi, India, reached above 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). Last summer was apparently the warmest in about 2,000 years, with temperatures averaging two degrees warmer than all our climate models predicted. As everyone is aware, fossil fuels continue to increase the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, heating our planet. But last summer was warmer than expected, even accounting for the effects of all known climate influencers. It might be a blip, but the heat in India this May and high Atlantic Ocean temperatures suggest we may be seeing a new trend line.

Every seemingly “small” increase in average climate temperature leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Storms grow fiercer, continuous rain becomes more prevalent, and droughts, as evidenced by the plight of Canada’s northern forests, fuel large-scale forest fires. The hurricane forecast for this year is grim, with expected surges in both number and intensity. While the reason for the more rapid rise in average temperatures is unclear, a new study suggests a novel cause.

Out of the blue

We have been reducing air pollution, which has resulted in a clearer sky. But a clearer sky permits more sunlight to reach the ground and the dark waters of the oceans, bringing heat with it. Pollution in the atmosphere, it turns out, can reflect sunlight, which reduces heating. Pollution also increases the number of reflective clouds. Thus, one good thing – reduced air pollution because of cleaner technology – can lead to other negative effects on our climate.

This is not the whole story of our rising temperatures. The rapid melting of snow and ice at the poles also means our planet is getting darker and absorbing more sunlight, which, again, increases heat. These combined effects of reduced pollution and a darker world apparently significantly affect our average temperature.

Prayers for a hot world

No one would suggest (I assume) that we increase our pollution to save the planet, but the side effects of cleaner skies show how interrelated our actions can be, sometimes in opposite and hard-to-predict directions. The world that our Lord has given us is complex and filled with chances for unintended consequences. What remains obvious is our need to accelerate our reduction of carbon emissions. The impact could be profound if our climate is heating up even more rapidly than expected.

Efforts are being made to provide different forms of clean energy, but even these solutions come with costs. Nuclear power has the side effect of long-lasting radioactive leftovers. Dams, which create hydropower, flood large amounts of land, displacing people and harming ecosystems. Electric car batteries contain toxic chemicals and must be handled carefully. The list goes on.

Our politicians are tasked with making choices for us all, and often, the options are complex without a single “right” answer. Scripture teaches us to pray for our leaders. In this increasingly hot world, we would be wise to do so.